Climate Risk and the Insurance Pricing Shock
How homeowners insurance premiums in our 30 cities have repriced climate risk between 2020 and 2026.
- 01Average homeowners premiums rose 53% across our 30-city sample from 2020 to 2026 — roughly 3x the rate of overall CPI inflation.
- 02Florida cities saw 110–180% premium increases. Coastal Carolina cities saw 60–95%. Mountain-West fire-zone cities saw 80–140%.
- 03Insurance is now ~24% of monthly housing cost on a typical Tampa home, up from 11% in 2020.
- 04Four of 30 cities are now considered 'high carrier withdrawal risk' by our analysis: Tampa, Charleston, Asheville, Boise.
Methodology
We collected average annual homeowners premium quotes from three national carriers for a $400,000 replacement-cost single-family home, in three representative ZIP codes per city, in January of 2020 and January of 2026. We cross-referenced premium changes with First Street Foundation risk scores for flood, wildfire, wind, and heat at the property level.
The pricing shock is bigger than the headlines
National coverage of the insurance crisis has focused on Florida and California, but our data shows the repricing is far broader. Mountain-West cities with elevated wildfire risk (Boise, Bend, Bozeman) saw 80–140% premium increases. Coastal Carolina cities (Charleston, Wilmington) saw 60–95%. Even mid-continent cities with severe-storm exposure (Wichita, Oklahoma City) saw 35–55% increases.
The cumulative effect is that insurance has moved from a rounding error in housing costs to a material line item. For a $400,000 home in Tampa, the average annual premium is now near $8,400 — about $700/month, or 24% of a typical PITI payment.
What the First Street data says
First Street Foundation's property-level risk scores correlate strongly with our premium changes, with one important caveat: insurers appear to be repricing risk faster than First Street's models suggest is warranted in some areas, and slower in others. Carriers are not following a published model — they are managing portfolio exposure, and that has region-specific dynamics our analysis cannot fully decompose.
What is clear: a buyer in 2026 cannot underwrite a 30-year mortgage without modeling insurance as a growing line item. Assuming 2020-vintage premiums in a budget for Tampa, Charleston, Boise, or Asheville will produce a number that has no relationship to what the family will actually pay.
How we treat insurance in our city scoring
Beginning with our 2026 update, we model 30-year insurance cost projections into the long-term affordability component of our city scores. Cities with elevated First Street risk and high carrier-withdrawal probability are penalized in the affordability and climate sub-scores even if today's premiums look manageable.
We will continue to publish this analysis annually. The 2027 update is scheduled for February.
Limitations
What this analysis cannot tell you. We publish limitations because no study is complete without them.
- Quoted premiums differ from bound policies; actual rates depend on credit, claims history, and structure characteristics.
- Three-carrier quotes do not capture surplus-lines or state-of-last-resort policies (Citizens FL, California FAIR Plan), which now dominate some markets.
- First Street scores are forward-looking projections; their accuracy at the property level remains debated.
- Wind and hurricane deductibles (often 2–5% of dwelling coverage) are a major real cost that the average premium figure understates.