For most of the 2010s the rent-vs-buy question had an easy answer in most American cities: buy, because mortgage rates were under 4% and rents were rising. That answer broke in 2022 when rates doubled, and in 2026 it's still broken in most metros — but not all of them.
The 5-7-10 framework
We use a simple framework: how many years until owning beats renting on total cost, assuming you invest the down payment difference at 7% real return?
- Under 5 years to break-even → buying is almost always the right call
- 5–7 years → depends on how long you plan to stay and how stable your job is
- Over 7 years → renting is usually the better financial choice
The 8 cities where buying still wins fast
- 01Murfreesboro, TN — break-even 3.8 years, rents rising 6% YoY
- 02Cape Coral, FL — break-even 4.1 years, insurance is the wildcard
- 03Reno, NV — break-even 4.3 years, no state income tax helps
- 04Boise, ID — break-even 4.5 years, prices already corrected
- 05Greenville, SC — break-even 4.6 years, low property taxes
- 06Huntsville, AL — break-even 4.7 years, stable rent market
- 07Sioux Falls, SD — break-even 4.8 years, no state income tax
- 08Knoxville, TN — break-even 4.9 years, tight inventory keeps prices firm
Why the math changed
Two things shifted between 2020 and 2026. First, the 30-year mortgage rate moved from ~3% to ~6.4%, which roughly doubles your monthly interest. Second, rent growth slowed to ~3% nationally after the 2021–2022 spike, removing the urgency that had pushed people into ownership.
The combined effect: in cities where home prices got bid up during the pandemic (Austin, Phoenix, Tampa), renting is now decisively cheaper. In cities where prices stayed grounded relative to rents, ownership still pencils.
The trap to avoid
How to run your own numbers
Use our rent-vs-buy calculator and plug in your actual numbers — not the city averages. The four inputs that matter most: your current rent, the home price you're considering, your expected stay length, and your real (not stated) opportunity cost of the down payment.
Questions readers ask
Q01Does the calculator account for tax benefits of owning?
Yes — but with the 2017 tax law's higher standard deduction, fewer households actually itemize, so for most users the mortgage interest deduction adds zero.
Q02What about appreciation?
We model 3% annual home appreciation by default, which roughly matches the long-run U.S. average net of inflation. You can change it.
Q03Should I buy if I plan to stay only 3 years?
Almost never. Transaction costs at sale (realtor fees, taxes, closing) usually eat 8–10% of the sale price, which is more than any equity you'd build in 3 years at current rates.
